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December 02, 2005



Canada is in a complex situation right now. The economy is booming, unemployment is at a 30 year low, and yet many citizens have a very cynical view of the government - not just the liberals but all political parties.

A booming economy and low unemployment tends to benefit the incumbent in Canadian politics. Opinion polls show the liberals with a marginal lead, very close with the conservatives, with the left-of-centre New Democratic Party not far behind.

The sponsorship scandal has deeply diminished public confidence in the Paul Martin liberal government, despite the fact that it didn't occur on his predecessors watch. However, Canadians are sick of hearing about this scandal, and many are looking past these events to the worthiness of the liberal party in general.

Many are just sick of voting and want to see a majority government (probably the liberals) just to avoid the continued uncertainty.

However, that is not likely. Most pollsters and election observors anticipate another minority liberal government, but with a possible dramatic shift in power from the current system.

If the NDP gains more seats, it may become an NDP-Liberal coalition that governs.

If the conservatives gain more seats, it will be more of a conservative-liberal coalition.

As far as Quebec independence goes, the Liberal (and possibly NDP) party is that movements worst enemy, so if the Liberals fail to succeed in Quebec, Canada as we know it may fall apart.

Its a nightmare I hope never comes to pass...

Just jokingly, I sometimes wonder if Canada should let Quebec seccede, then invade it militarily US-style and settle the issue once and for all.

Hey, it is the 200th anniversary of Napoleon's Austerlitz victory. Perhaps a little bit of that is in order in Canada's usually calm and diplomatic politics.


The conservatives would need to pull off an amazing rout in Ontario and other vote rich provinces in order to become the next Canadian government. The likelyhood of an anglophone leader winning in socially-liberal quebec is very low.


You have to love a country where liberals aren't afraid to call themselves liberals.

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